Jan 07, 2011
G7 economies to be eclipsed by emerging economies within a decade – reportBack
Pricewaterhouse|PwC|Asia|Argentina|Australia|Brazil|Canada|China|France|Germany|India|Indonesia|Italy|Japan|Mexico|Nigeria|Russia|South Africa|Turkey|United Kingdom|United States|Vietnam|Advisory Services|Gross Domestic Product|John Hawksworth|Western Europe
© Reuse this
So predicts global industry assurance, tax and advisory services group Pricewaterhouse-Coopers (PwC) in a report released on Friday and entitled “The World in 2050”. The company credits the global financial crisis with accelerating this process.
On the basis of purchasing power parity (PPP) calculations of gross domestic product (GDP), the E7 (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey) will collectively overtake the G7 (the US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada) in 2017. If the E7 and G7 GDPs are calculated in market exchange rates (MERs), then the overtake point comes later – 2032.
Regarding individual countries, and using PPP calculations, PwC forecasts than China will overtake the US in 2018 to become the world’s biggest economy, while India will overtake Japan (to become the number three economy) even sooner – this year (2011), in fact. Russia will overtake Germany in 2014, Brazil will overtake the UK in 2013, Mexico eclipse France in 2028, Indonesia overhaul Italy in 2030 and Turkey overtake Canada in 2020.
India could overtake the US, relegating the American economy to third place, in 2050.
Again, if the GDP calculations are made in MERs, the overtake points come later. Thus, China would overtake the US in 2032, India pass Japan in 2028, Russia overhaul Germany in 2042, Brazil go ahead of the UK in 2023, Mexico pass France in 2046, Indonesia overtake Italy in 2039 and Turkey would exceed Canada in 2035.
PwC points out that, as MER calculations can be extremely volatile and tend to underestimate the size of emerging and developing economies, economists often prefer to use PPP calculations to make international comparisons. In the case of both sets of calculations, the dates predicted are estimates and, the company warns, are subject to “many uncertainties”.
Concerning the G20 group, which includes both the biggest developed and emerging economies, the forecast is that by 2050 Australia and Argentina are likely to have dropped out of its ranks, and could be replaced by Vietnam and Nigeria.
“In many ways,” states PwC chief economist John Hawksworth, “the renewed dominance by 2050 of China and India, with their much larger populations, is a return to the historical norm prior to the Industrial Revolution of the late 18th and 19th centuries that caused a shift in global economic power from Asia to Western Europe and the US – this temporary shift in power is now going into reverse.”
The report highlights that the greatest increase in a single country’s share of global GDP is forecast for India, and not China. In MER terms, India accounted for 2% of global GDP but by 2050 this could reach 13%.
However, the per capita PPP GDPs of Brazil, China and India will continue to lag far behind those for the US, UK and of G7 as a group, to (probably well) beyond 2050.
Regarding South Africa, PwC expects this country’s economy to grow at an annual average real rate of some 3,8% from 2010 to 2050. Over the same period, Nigeria’s annual average real growth rate is forecast to be about 6,5%.
Edited by: Creamer Media Reporter© Reuse this Comment Guidelines
Recent Research Reports
Defence 2013: A review of South Africa's defence industry (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s 2013 Defence Report examines South Africa’s defence industry, with particular focus on the key players in the sector, the innovations that have come out of the defence sector, local and export demand, South Africa’s controversial...
Road and Rail 2013: A review of South Africa's road and rail infrastructure (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Road and Rail 2013 Report examines South Africa’s road and rail transport system, with particular focus on the size and state of the country’s road and rail network, the funding and maintenance of these respective networks, and the push to move...
Liquid Fuels 2013 (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s 2013 Liquid Fuels report examines South Africa’s liquid fuels market, focusing on the business environment, oil and gas exploration, the country’s feedstock supplies, the development of South Africa’s biofuels industry, fuel pricing,...
Projects in Progress - Second Edition (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s second Projects in Progress supplement considers some of the major project developments under way, including high-profile energy and transport projects, as well as a few of the lower-profile public and private developments. What remains apparent is...
Water 2013: A review of South Africa’s water sector (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Water 2013 report considers the aforementioned issues, not only in the South African context, but also in the African and global context, and examines the issues of water and sanitation, water quality and the demand for water, among others.
Canadian Mining Roundup for June 2013 (PDF Report)
The June 2013 roundup includes details of the development of TSX-V-listed Aldridge Minerals’ flagship Yenipazar polymetallic project, in Turkey; the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission’s renewal of Cameco’s uranium mining licence pertaining to the Cigar Lake...
This Week's Magazine
Mitsubishi Motors South Africa (MMSA) has introduced a 4x2 derivative of its Pajero Sport sports-utility vehicle (SUV), which will give it access to a substantial slice of the full-size SUV market, where it will compete with the likes of the Ford Everest, Chevrolet...
South African Energy Minister Ben Martins has affirmed that the government wants the country to be globally competitive in the nuclear sector. "Our responsibility has always been ... to ensure that, in nuclear energy, South Africa can compete with the rest of the...
Mercedes-Benz South Africa (MBSA) president and CEO Dr Martin Zimmermann describes the new S-Class as “a special place to be”, with the car creating a sense of “wellness” once you are seated inside the German brand’s flagship model. It is difficult to argue...
Water scarcity and water-quality issues are broadly recognised and understood in most political, business and civil organisations in South Africa, but solving water issues will require wide and continuous action in catchments and municipalities by organisations and...
Work is well under way on the R212-million Imvutshane dam, 30 km north-west of Stanger, in KwaZulu-Natal, which is a key link in supplying people in rural Maphumulo with a reliable source of safe drinking water.