http://www.engineeringnews.co.za
  SEARCH
Login
R/€ = 13.78Change: 0.04
R/$ = 10.94Change: -0.10
Au 1204.66 $/ozChange: -19.52
Pt 1252.50 $/ozChange: -17.70
 
 
Note: Search is limited to the most recent 250 articles. Set date range to access earlier articles.
Where? With... When?








Start
 
End
 
 
And must exclude these words...
Close Main Search
Close Main Login
My Profile News Alerts Newsletters Logout Close Main Profile
 
Agriculture   Automotive   Chemicals   Competition Policy   Construction   Defence   Economy   Electricity   Energy   Environment   ICT   Metals   Mining   Science and Technology   Services   Trade   Transport & Logistics   Water  
What's On Press Office Tenders Suppliers Directory Research Jobs Announcements Contact Us
 
 
 
RSS Feed
Article   Comments   Other News   Research   Magazine  
 
 
Jan 07, 2011

G7 economies to be eclipsed by emerging economies within a decade – report

Back
Africa|Industrial|Pricewaterhouse|PwC|Africa|Asia|Argentina|Australia|Brazil|Canada|China|France|Germany|India|Indonesia|Italy|Japan|Mexico|Nigeria|Russia|South Africa|Turkey|United Kingdom|United States|Vietnam|Advisory Services|Gross Domestic Product|Services|John Hawksworth|Power|Western Europe
Africa|Industrial||Africa|||Services|Power|
africa-company|industrial|pricewaterhouse|pwc|africa|asia|argentina|australia-country|brazil|canada|china|france|germany|india|indonesia|italy|japan|mexico|nigeria|russia|south-africa|turkey|united-kingdom|united-states|vietnam|advisory-services|gross-domestic-product|services|john-hawksworth|power|western-europe
© Reuse this



The combined size of the seven biggest emerging market economies (E7) is likely to exceed the combined size of the seven biggest developed economies (G7) within a decade.

So predicts global industry assurance, tax and advisory services group Pricewaterhouse-Coopers (PwC) in a report released on Friday and entitled “The World in 2050”. The company credits the global financial crisis with accelerating this process.

On the basis of purchasing power parity (PPP) calculations of gross domestic product (GDP), the E7 (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey) will collectively overtake the G7 (the US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada) in 2017. If the E7 and G7 GDPs are calculated in market exchange rates (MERs), then the overtake point comes later – 2032.

Regarding individual countries, and using PPP calculations, PwC forecasts than China will overtake the US in 2018 to become the world’s biggest economy, while India will overtake Japan (to become the number three economy) even sooner – this year (2011), in fact. Russia will overtake Germany in 2014, Brazil will overtake the UK in 2013, Mexico eclipse France in 2028, Indonesia overhaul Italy in 2030 and Turkey overtake Canada in 2020.

India could overtake the US, relegating the American economy to third place, in 2050.

Again, if the GDP calculations are made in MERs, the overtake points come later. Thus, China would overtake the US in 2032, India pass Japan in 2028, Russia overhaul Germany in 2042, Brazil go ahead of the UK in 2023, Mexico pass France in 2046, Indonesia overtake Italy in 2039 and Turkey would exceed Canada in 2035.

PwC points out that, as MER calculations can be extremely volatile and tend to underestimate the size of emerging and developing economies, economists often prefer to use PPP calculations to make international comparisons. In the case of both sets of calculations, the dates predicted are estimates and, the company warns, are subject to “many uncertainties”.

Concerning the G20 group, which includes both the biggest developed and emerging economies, the forecast is that by 2050 Australia and Argentina are likely to have dropped out of its ranks, and could be replaced by Vietnam and Nigeria.

“In many ways,” states PwC chief economist John Hawksworth, “the renewed dominance by 2050 of China and India, with their much larger populations, is a return to the historical norm prior to the Industrial Revolution of the late 18th and 19th centuries that caused a shift in global economic power from Asia to Western Europe and the US – this temporary shift in power is now going into reverse.”

The report highlights that the greatest increase in a single country’s share of global GDP is forecast for India, and not China. In MER terms, India accounted for 2% of global GDP but by 2050 this could reach 13%.

However, the per capita PPP GDPs of Brazil, China and India will continue to lag far behind those for the US, UK and of G7 as a group, to (probably well) beyond 2050.

Regarding South Africa, PwC expects this country’s economy to grow at an annual average real rate of some 3,8% from 2010 to 2050. Over the same period, Nigeria’s annual average real growth rate is forecast to be about 6,5%.

Edited by: Creamer Media Reporter
© Reuse this Comment Guidelines (150 word limit)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Latest News
Mossel Bay harbour
Updated 1 hour 21 minutes ago The National Ports Authority (NPA) has taken steps to ensure the Ebola virus disease does not enter South Africa through one of its main harbours, Public Enterprises Minister Lynne Brown revealed on Thursday. "As of September 23, all vessels [from certain countries]...
Updated 2 hours 48 minutes ago AltX-Listed Huge Group on Thursday said it had secured a loan agreement that would enable the funding of the company’s significant growth. In a statement to shareholders, Huge Group said that, following a “high level of interest” from debt finance providers, wholly...
Herman Burger, Madeleine du Toit and Corney van Rooyen
Updated 3 hours ago A high-standard technical paper, titled ‘Laser metal deposition microstructure of modified low-C martensitic stainless steel’, has secured two Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) metallurgists and a University of Pretoria (UP) professor the...
More
 
 
Recent Research Reports
Defence 2014: A review of South Africa's defence industry (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Defence 2014 report examines South Africa’s defence industry, with particular focus on the key participants in the sector, the innovations that have come out of the sector, local and export demand, South Africa’s controversial multibillion-rand...
Road and Rail 2014: A review of South Africa's road and rail infrastructure (PDF report)
Creamer Media’s Road and Rail 2014 report examines South Africa’s road and rail transport system, with particular focus on the size and state of the country’s road and rail network, the funding and maintenance of these respective networks, and the push to move road...
Real Economy Year Book 2014 (PDF Report)
This edition drills down into the performance and outlook for a variety of sectors, including automotive, construction, electricity, transport, steel, water, coal, gold, iron-ore and platinum.
Real Economy Insight: Automotive 2014 (PDF Report)
This four-page brief covers key developments in the automotive industry over the past 12 months, including an overview of South Africa’s automotive market, trade figures, production and the policies influencing the sector.
Real Economy Insight: Construction 2014 (PDF Report)
This five-page brief covers key developments in the construction industry over the past 12 months. It provides an overview of the sector and includes details of employment in the sector, infrastructure and municipal spending, as well as insight into companies’...
Real Economy Insight: Electricity 2014 (PDF Report)
This five-page brief covers key developments in the electricity industry over the past 12 months, including details of State-owned power utility Eskom’s generation activities, funding and tariffs, independent power producers and prospects for the sector.
 
 
 
 
 
This Week's Magazine
Integrated energy and chemical company Sasol has partnered with Unisa Graduate School of Business Leadership (SBL) professor and founder and CEO of PanAvest Partnership Dr Douglas Boateng to publish a series of books on executive supply chain management aimed at...
MORNÉ DU PLESSIS Increased urgency and burgeoning awareness of the importance of these issues are beginning to change political risks and, thus, State responses to environmental concerns
The World Wide Fund for Nature’s (WWF’s) 2014 Living Planet Index (LPI) indicates that there has been a 52% decline in vertebrate species since 1970. The Index tracked the trends of 10 000 discrete populations of over 3000 vertebrate species between 1970 and 2010.
Rwanda has joined a number of East African countries seeking to import electricity from Ethiopia as its demand grows. After it became apparent several generation project it is implementing will not come on stream early enough, now plans to import 400 MW from Ethiopia...
Metrorail’s first new passenger train will arrive in November next year, says Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA) CEO Lucky Montana. “Next year we will be able to put our hands around the infrastructure and equipment we have been talking about for so long.”
The Competition Commission has launched an investigation into what it says are “price fixing, market division and collusive tendering in the market for the manufacture and supply of automotive components to original equipment manufacturers” (OEMs, or vehicle...
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Alert Close
Embed Code Close
content
Research Reports Close
Research Reports are a product of the
Research Channel Africa. Reports can be bought individually or you can gain full access to all reports as part of a Research Channel Africa subscription.
Find Out More Buy Report
 
 
Close
Engineering News
Completely Re-Engineered
Experience it now. Click here
*website to launch in a few weeks