http://www.engineeringnews.co.za
  SEARCH
Login
R/€ = 14.60Change: -0.01
R/$ = 10.55Change: 0.01
Au 1301.51 $/ozChange: -1.35
Pt 1437.00 $/ozChange: 0.50
 
 
Note: Search is limited to the most recent 250 articles. Set date range to access earlier articles.
Where? With... When?








Start
 
End
 
 
And must exclude these words...
Close Main Search
Close Main Login
My Profile News Alerts Newsletters Logout Close Main Profile
 
Nelson Mandela 1918 - 2013   Agriculture   Automotive   Chemicals   Competition Policy   Construction   Defence   Economy   Electricity   Energy   Environment   ICT   Metals   Mining   Science & Technology   Services   Trade   Transport & Logistics   Water  
What's On Press Office Suppliers Directory Research Jobs Announcements Contact Us
 
 
 
RSS Feed
Article   Comments   Other News   Research   Magazine  
 
 
Jan 07, 2011

G7 economies to be eclipsed by emerging economies within a decade – report

Back
Pricewaterhouse|PwC|Asia|Argentina|Australia|Brazil|Canada|China|France|Germany|India|Indonesia|Italy|Japan|Mexico|Nigeria|Russia|South Africa|Turkey|United Kingdom|United States|Vietnam|Advisory Services|Gross Domestic Product|John Hawksworth|Western Europe
pricewaterhouse|pwc|asia|argentina|australia-country|brazil|canada|china|france|germany|india|indonesia|italy|japan|mexico|nigeria|russia|south-africa|turkey|united-kingdom|united-states|vietnam|advisory-services|gross-domestic-product|john-hawksworth|western-europe
© Reuse this



The combined size of the seven biggest emerging market economies (E7) is likely to exceed the combined size of the seven biggest developed economies (G7) within a decade.

So predicts global industry assurance, tax and advisory services group Pricewaterhouse-Coopers (PwC) in a report released on Friday and entitled “The World in 2050”. The company credits the global financial crisis with accelerating this process.

On the basis of purchasing power parity (PPP) calculations of gross domestic product (GDP), the E7 (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey) will collectively overtake the G7 (the US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada) in 2017. If the E7 and G7 GDPs are calculated in market exchange rates (MERs), then the overtake point comes later – 2032.

Regarding individual countries, and using PPP calculations, PwC forecasts than China will overtake the US in 2018 to become the world’s biggest economy, while India will overtake Japan (to become the number three economy) even sooner – this year (2011), in fact. Russia will overtake Germany in 2014, Brazil will overtake the UK in 2013, Mexico eclipse France in 2028, Indonesia overhaul Italy in 2030 and Turkey overtake Canada in 2020.

India could overtake the US, relegating the American economy to third place, in 2050.

Again, if the GDP calculations are made in MERs, the overtake points come later. Thus, China would overtake the US in 2032, India pass Japan in 2028, Russia overhaul Germany in 2042, Brazil go ahead of the UK in 2023, Mexico pass France in 2046, Indonesia overtake Italy in 2039 and Turkey would exceed Canada in 2035.

PwC points out that, as MER calculations can be extremely volatile and tend to underestimate the size of emerging and developing economies, economists often prefer to use PPP calculations to make international comparisons. In the case of both sets of calculations, the dates predicted are estimates and, the company warns, are subject to “many uncertainties”.

Concerning the G20 group, which includes both the biggest developed and emerging economies, the forecast is that by 2050 Australia and Argentina are likely to have dropped out of its ranks, and could be replaced by Vietnam and Nigeria.

“In many ways,” states PwC chief economist John Hawksworth, “the renewed dominance by 2050 of China and India, with their much larger populations, is a return to the historical norm prior to the Industrial Revolution of the late 18th and 19th centuries that caused a shift in global economic power from Asia to Western Europe and the US – this temporary shift in power is now going into reverse.”

The report highlights that the greatest increase in a single country’s share of global GDP is forecast for India, and not China. In MER terms, India accounted for 2% of global GDP but by 2050 this could reach 13%.

However, the per capita PPP GDPs of Brazil, China and India will continue to lag far behind those for the US, UK and of G7 as a group, to (probably well) beyond 2050.

Regarding South Africa, PwC expects this country’s economy to grow at an annual average real rate of some 3,8% from 2010 to 2050. Over the same period, Nigeria’s annual average real growth rate is forecast to be about 6,5%.

Edited by: Creamer Media Reporter
© Reuse this Comment Guidelines
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Latest News
South Africa's drive to create a competitive and food-secure State was boosted on Tuesday with the launch of the Centre of Excellence (CoE) in Food Security, at the University of the Western Cape, which would bring together a cohort of experts and researchers from 19...
The City of Cape Town has entered into eight third-party service provider agreements licensing the take up of the spare infrastructure capacity generated through the city’s broadband network. Lease-agreement negotiations were progressing with another 20 third-party...
A 344.5 t wax reactor has arrived at petrochemicals giant Sasol’s Fisher-Tropsch wax expansion project, in Sasolsburg, in the Free State, after five weeks of road travel from Richards Bay, in KwaZulu-Natal. The reactor was transported through Pongola, in...
More
 
 
Recent Research Reports
Steel 2014: A review of South Africa's steel sector (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Steel 2014 report provides an overview of the global steel industry and particularly of South Africa’s steel sector over the past year, including details of production and consumption, as well as the country's primary carbon steel and stainless...
Projects in Progress 2014 - First Edition (PDF Report)
This publication contains insight into progress at the delayed Medupi and Kusile coal-fired projects, in Mpumalanga and Limpopo respectively, as well as at the Ingula pumped-storage scheme, which is under construction on the border between the Free State and...
Automotive 2014: A review of South Africa's automotive sector (PDF Report)
The report provides insight into the business environment, the key participants in the sector, local construction demand, geographic diversification, competition within the sector, corporate activity, skills, safety, environmental considerations and the challenges...
Construction 2014: A review of South Africa's construction sector (PDF Report)
Construction data released during 2013 hints at a halt to the decline in the industry during the last few years, with some commentators averring that the industry could be poised for recovery. However, others have urged caution, noting that the prospects for a...
Electricity 2014: A Review of South Africa's Electricity Sector (PDF Report)
This report provides an overview of the state of electricity generation and transmission in South Africa and examines electricity planning, investment in generation capacity, electricity tariffs, the role of independent power producers and demand-focused initiatives,...
Defence 2013: A review of South Africa's defence industry (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s 2013 Defence Report examines South Africa’s defence industry, with particular focus on the key players in the sector, the innovations that have come out of the defence sector, local and export demand, South Africa’s controversial...
 
 
 
 
 
This Week's Magazine
There is enough water in South Africa to supply communities and the economy, even if some activities may be constrained, such as agriculture in the Limpopo, says National Planning Commission commissioner Mike Muller. 
Muller was also the director-general from 1997...
South African antenna designer and producer Poynting and provider of professional products, system integration and implementation and commissioning services for the broadcast and telecommunications markets in South Africa, African Union Communications (Aucom),...
Industrial automation giant Festo has been displaying some of the its ongoing research projects and latest automation developments and products at the Hannover industrial fair from April 7 to 11, as part of its Integrated Automation – The Next Steps theme. The...
South African retail companies are responding to the way in which e-commerce is changing their engagement model with customers by improving customer engagement channels and order fulfilment intelligence, says industrial and retail software company JDA Europe, Middle...
In support of the South African government’s mandate to create more jobs and promote sustainable development, multilevel marketing company Amway’ business model aims to assist government in easing the startup of business and encourage an entrepreneurial mindset...
 
 
 
 


 
 
 
 
 
Alert Close
Embed Code Close
content
Research Reports Close
Research Reports are a product of the
Research Channel Africa. Reports can be bought individually or you can gain full access to all reports as part of a Research Channel Africa subscription.
Find Out More Buy Report
 
 
Close
Engineering News
Completely Re-Engineered
Experience it now. Click here
*website to launch in a few weeks