http://www.engineeringnews.co.za
  SEARCH
Login
R/€ = 13.11Change: 0.00
R/$ = 11.90Change: -0.02
Au 1205.90 $/ozChange: -0.17
Pt 1147.50 $/ozChange: -1.00
 
 
Note: Search is limited to the most recent 250 articles. Set date range to access earlier articles.
Where? With... When?








Start
 
End
 
 
And must exclude these words...
Close Main Search
Close Main Login
My Profile News Alerts Newsletters Logout Close Main Profile
 
Agriculture   Automotive   Chemicals   Competition Policy   Construction   Defence   Economy   Electricity   Energy   Environment   ICT   Metals   Mining   Science and Technology   Services   Trade   Transport & Logistics   Water  
What's On Press Office Tenders Suppliers Directory Research Jobs Announcements Letters Contact Us
 
 
 
RSS Feed
Article   Comments   Other News   Research   Magazine  
 
 
Jan 07, 2011

G7 economies to be eclipsed by emerging economies within a decade – report

Back
Africa|Industrial|Africa|Services|Power
Africa|Industrial|Africa|Services|Power
africa-company|industrial|africa|services|power
© Reuse this



The combined size of the seven biggest emerging market economies (E7) is likely to exceed the combined size of the seven biggest developed economies (G7) within a decade.

So predicts global industry assurance, tax and advisory services group Pricewaterhouse-Coopers (PwC) in a report released on Friday and entitled “The World in 2050”. The company credits the global financial crisis with accelerating this process.

On the basis of purchasing power parity (PPP) calculations of gross domestic product (GDP), the E7 (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey) will collectively overtake the G7 (the US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada) in 2017. If the E7 and G7 GDPs are calculated in market exchange rates (MERs), then the overtake point comes later – 2032.

Regarding individual countries, and using PPP calculations, PwC forecasts than China will overtake the US in 2018 to become the world’s biggest economy, while India will overtake Japan (to become the number three economy) even sooner – this year (2011), in fact. Russia will overtake Germany in 2014, Brazil will overtake the UK in 2013, Mexico eclipse France in 2028, Indonesia overhaul Italy in 2030 and Turkey overtake Canada in 2020.

India could overtake the US, relegating the American economy to third place, in 2050.

Again, if the GDP calculations are made in MERs, the overtake points come later. Thus, China would overtake the US in 2032, India pass Japan in 2028, Russia overhaul Germany in 2042, Brazil go ahead of the UK in 2023, Mexico pass France in 2046, Indonesia overtake Italy in 2039 and Turkey would exceed Canada in 2035.

PwC points out that, as MER calculations can be extremely volatile and tend to underestimate the size of emerging and developing economies, economists often prefer to use PPP calculations to make international comparisons. In the case of both sets of calculations, the dates predicted are estimates and, the company warns, are subject to “many uncertainties”.

Concerning the G20 group, which includes both the biggest developed and emerging economies, the forecast is that by 2050 Australia and Argentina are likely to have dropped out of its ranks, and could be replaced by Vietnam and Nigeria.

“In many ways,” states PwC chief economist John Hawksworth, “the renewed dominance by 2050 of China and India, with their much larger populations, is a return to the historical norm prior to the Industrial Revolution of the late 18th and 19th centuries that caused a shift in global economic power from Asia to Western Europe and the US – this temporary shift in power is now going into reverse.”

The report highlights that the greatest increase in a single country’s share of global GDP is forecast for India, and not China. In MER terms, India accounted for 2% of global GDP but by 2050 this could reach 13%.

However, the per capita PPP GDPs of Brazil, China and India will continue to lag far behind those for the US, UK and of G7 as a group, to (probably well) beyond 2050.

Regarding South Africa, PwC expects this country’s economy to grow at an annual average real rate of some 3,8% from 2010 to 2050. Over the same period, Nigeria’s annual average real growth rate is forecast to be about 6,5%.

Edited by: Creamer Media Reporter
© Reuse this Comment Guidelines (150 word limit)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Latest News
South Africa’s crude steel production dropped by a sizeable 17.2% year-on-year to an estimated 530 000 t in April, amplifying a global trend that saw world steel production decline by a comparatively marginal 1.7% to 135-million tons in the fourth month of the year....
The Treasure the Karoo Action Group (TKAG) on Friday called on government to delay publishing final regulations and issuing rights for shale gas exploration in the Karoo, until a 24-month strategic environmental assessment (SEA) has been concluded. TKAG CEO Jonathan...
More
 
 
Recent Research Reports
Steel 2015: A review of South Africa's steel sector (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Steel 2015 report provides an overview of the key developments in the global steel industry and particularly of South Africa’s steel sector over the past year, including details of production and consumption, as well as the country's primary carbon...
Projects in Progress 2015 - First Edition (PDF Report)
In fact, this edition of Creamer Media’s Projects in Progress 2015 supplement tracks developments taking place under the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme, which has had four bidding rounds. It appears to remain a shining light on the...
Electricity 2015: A review of South Africa's electricity sector (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Electricity 2015 report provides an overview of State-owned power utility Eskom and independent power producers, as well as electricity planning, transmission, distribution and the theft thereof, besides other issues.
Construction 2015: A review of South Africa’s construction sector (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Construction 2015 Report examines South Africa’s construction industry over the past 12 months. The report provides insight into the business environment; the key participants in the sector; local construction demand; geographic diversification;...
Liquid Fuels 2014 - A review of South Africa's Liquid Fuels sector (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Liquid Fuels 2014 Report examines these issues, focusing on the business environment, oil and gas exploration, the country’s feedstock supplies, the development of South Africa’s biofuels industry, fuel pricing, competition in the sector, the...
Water 2014: A review of South Africa's water sector (PDF Report)
Creamer Media’s Water 2014 report considers the aforementioned issues, not only in the South African context, but also in the African and global context, and examines the issues of water and sanitation, water quality and the demand for water, among others.
 
 
 
 
 
This Week's Magazine
While economic forecasts for the African continent are most favourable, African airlines may not be able to benefit from the expected growth in the region’s gross domestic product (GDP), International Air Transport Association VP: Africa Raphael Kuuchi has warned....
The Automotive Production and Development Programme (APDP) will need to change substantially post 2020, says Metair Investments South African operations COO Ken Lello. “We must not make tweaks. We have to change. What we are doing is not sustainable.”
Banking group Absa’s forecast is for the rand to end the year at around R13 against the dollar, weakening further to R13.50 by 2016, says Absa sectoral analyst Jacques du Toit. He warns that possible interest rate hikes in the US may see capital being pulled from...
The Dispute Resolution Centre at the Bargaining Council for the Civil Engineering Industry (BCCEI) is now open to handle party-to-party disputes. The BCCEI represents the interests of all level four to nine Construction Industry Development Board companies.
FREDRIK JEJDLING Sustainability becomes an important part of a business’ decision-making process
Communications technology firm Ericsson sub-Saharan Africa head Fredrik Jejdling says the company’s commitment to sustainability and corporate responsibility has been integrated into all facets of its operations, which has provided it with sustainable revenue...
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Alert Close
Embed Code Close
content
Research Reports Close
Research Reports are a product of the
Research Channel Africa. Reports can be bought individually or you can gain full access to all reports as part of a Research Channel Africa subscription.
Find Out More Buy Report
 
 
Close
Engineering News
Completely Re-Engineered
Experience it now. Click here
*website to launch in a few weeks
Subscribe Now for $96 Close
Subscribe Now for $96