The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fewsnet) has warned of a serious food security crisis in Southern Africa starting due to the poor rainfall patterns, which have persisted.

In a regional food security and weather hazards bulletin covering the period February 17 to February 25, Fewsnet said the 2015-2016 drought was the worst ever recorded in the region in 30 years.

Key among its findings, the early warning network said there would be significant reductions in crop harvests this year in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Lesotho, Zambia, Swaziland and Mozambique due to the erratic rainfall.

“Most countries in the region are likely to experience an extended lean season by at least a month due to the effects of late planting experienced across the region. The start of the green harvest, which normally provides alternative sources of food to most poor households, is expected to start around mid-March compared to the usual February. The main harvest will also likely start in April.

“Regional cereal stocks in some surplus countries is limited. Zambia, which was the highest exporting country in the region last year, is left with exportable stocks of approximately 200 000 MT. The further decrease in exportable stocks in the region will likely result in significant price increases during the peak of the lean season in March, especially in Malawi and Zimbabwe, both deficit countries,” Fewsnet said.

The largest precipitation deficits remained concentrated over southern Zambia, central and western Mozambique, southern Malawi and across most of Zimbabwe. It was also noted that the erratic rainfall patterns had resulted in wilted and damaged maize crops over large portions of South Africa with Free State and North West Provinces being the hardest-hit.

According to first-round 2016 crop cover estimates, the area planted for white and yellow maize in regional bread-basket South Africa is estimated at 75% with a projected production estimate of 64%. Because of its own internal cereal deficits, South Africa is unlikely to export to its heavily-dependent neighbours including Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Namibia and Botswana.

“This decrease is a result of drought conditions experienced in a number of areas in the region. Similar reductions in area planted and projected production levels are expected in a number of regional countries including Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Lesotho, and Madagascar,” the network said.

In a related development, Fewsnet has issued a flood alert for Tanzania, which recently had very heavy rains.

Above-average rains that may lead to localised flooding are expected over northern Malawi, Lesotho and surrounding South African provinces and Zambia.

Insignificantly poor rainfall patterns are expected to continue over parts of Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Namibia, southern Angola and some parts of Zambia.