Falling commodity prices, Chinese slowdown weigh on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA’s) economy is likely to grow by 2.6% this year, says international trade credit insurer Coface.
It points out that commodity prices had plummeted 45% in two years, while the oil price had fallen almost 60% to around $50/bl, placing strain on countries that are heavily reliant on the export of commodities and oil.
Further exacerbating the situation was the slowdown experienced in China’s economy since 2010, with many countries exporting considerable quantities of commodities to China.
In addition, domestic factors, such as electricity constraints in South Africa, the impact of El Niño and governance problems in SSA, and significant security tensions in Nigeria, further impacted on economic growth in the region.
Coface stated on Monday that the external risks had increased considerably, with some countries’ current account balances having deteriorated amid falling revenues from commodity exports and negative shocks in trade had been particularly pronounced.
This was accompanied by strong downward pressure on exchange rates against the dollar, which caused a marked increase in inflationary pressures.
Angola, Ghana, South Africa, Nigeria and Zambia have had to cope with a massive depreciation of their exchange rates against the dollar, which was unlikely to be corrected this year.
However, currencies and commodity prices had generally stabilised since the start of 2016, stated Coface.
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