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Exiting Europe twice in just four days

8th July 2016

By: Riaan de Lange

  

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It is an overcast evening with the sun still shining brightly where it breaks through various cavities in the cloud cover. It is still something to acclimatise to – to enjoy bright sunshine at 21:00 (or 20:00 GMT). We are only minutes away from England taking on Iceland at the Union of European Football Association’s Euro 2016 tournament, in Nice, France (interesting ‘Nice’ is pronounced ‘Niece’).

Over 8% of Iceland’s population is in France to cheer on their national team, the surprise of Euro 2016, which qualified for its first-ever knockout stage of a major tournament. The Iceland footbal team is also playing in its first-ever international tournament. (Something fascinating about the Iceland team – all the players’ surnames end with ‘son’.) In contrast, England, the Three Lions, has not won a knockout round game since 2006, when it beat Ecuador at the World Cup tournament. England’s only ever victory in the knockout rounds of a Euro tournament came in 1966, when it defeated Spain, the current Euro champions for two tournaments running, on penalties.

England had a dream start, taking the lead within four minutes of play. But Iceland equalised within 34 seconds of the resumption of play and added a second goal 12 minutes later; this became the final scoreline.

To put it all in perspective, Iceland has a population of 323 002, while Leicester – the home of 5 000:1 outsiders and the Premier League’s 2015/16 champions – has a population of 330 000. The population of the whole of England is 65 111 143, which means that Iceland’s population represents 0.51% of that of England.

The defeat is considered the greatest humiliation that England has suffered on the soccer field. As if to share in England’s commiseration, it started to rain during the latter part of the second half, unseasonably so for Gibraltar. This was England’s second Brexit in just four days.

As if this day could not be worse for England, it is the day on which, 102 years ago, the First World War (WWI) started. On a single day during that war, more than 19 000 British died – the most in its entire military history. The eventual military and civilian casualties of WWI was more than 38-million, with over 17-million deaths and 20-million wounded. Due to the magnitude of its casualties, WWI ranks among the deadliest conflicts in human history.

Well, if the world – let us be honest, it was predominantly Europe – was in conflict then, it is in conflict again. Although blood might not follow, literary, the European financial markets are expected to bleed for some time to come, with the knock-on effect to be felt by European economies and economies around the world.

A mere four days prior to England’s defeat to Iceland – on June 24 – the UK decided to leave the 28-member European Union (EU). Just to remind you, the UK’s EU membership referendum, commonly known as Brexit, was a nonbinding referendum that took place on June 23 in the UK and Gibraltar to gauge support for the UK’s continued membership of the EU. In an unprecedented move, 51.9% of voters voted to leave the EU. Interestingly, the vote was split between the constituent countries of the UK, with a majority in England and Wales voting to leave, and a majority in Scotland and Northern Ireland, as well as Gibraltar (96%), voting to remain. It is quite obvious from the reaction of many political leaders that the decision to leave the EU took them by total surprise. The vote has already led to the resignation of British Prime Minister David Cameron. It has also led to a damaging leadership challenge in the main opposition party, with 21 members of the shadow Cabinet having tendered their resignations and more expected to follow suit. It is apparent that not everyone has heeded the universal truth – to expect the unexpected.

The uncertainty caused by the referendum result has not been appreciated by the financial markets, and this has seen the exchange rate between the British pound and the US dollar tumble to a 31-year low, this, even though the UK is yet to formally inform the EU of its intention to leave the bloc. The exit process is widely expected to take up to two years to complete.

As I am writing this article, the South African rand has been strengthening against the British pound, but the obvious question is: How is Brexit going to impact on South Africa, particularly with respect to the Trade, Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA) and, once South Africa signs, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA)? The UK is a major trading partner of South Africa’s and a major foreign investor in the country. There is the distinct possibility that the UK would be inclined to rather invest within its borders – well, at least in the short to medium term. Will South Africa take the initiative in proposing to conclude a deal similar to the TDCA, inclusive of a free trade agreement, with the UK? What about the SADC EPA? Even with a strengthening rand, South Africa might well still remain competitive within the UK market. Cognisant of the challenges to its own economy, South Africa simply cannot let a major trading partner and investor leave. If anything, decisive action is now required.

Sunset Review Applications
On June 24, the International Trade Admini- stration Commission of South Africa (Itac) announced that, unless duly substantiated requests are made by or on behalf of the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) industry, indicating that the expiry of the antidumping duty would likely lead to the continuation or recurrence of dumping and material injury, the following antidumping duties will expire during 2016. The products in question are fully threaded screws with hexagon heads, imported from or originating in the People’s Republic of China; drawn, float and solar glass, imported from or originating in Indonesia; unframed glass mirrors, imported from or originating in Indonesia; and chicken meat portions, imported from or originating in the US.

The antidumping duties on fully threaded screws with hexagon heads are due to expire by November 15, 2017; duties on drawn, float and solar glass are due to expire by July 26, 2017; duties on unframed glass mirrors are due to expire by April 19, 2017; and duties on chicken meat portions are due to expire by April 4, 2017.

Manufacturers of the subject products in the Sacu region who wish to submit a request for the antidumping duty to be reviewed prior to the expiry thereof are requested to do so by July 25. In instances where no responses are received from the Sacu manufacturers by this deadline, Itac will recommend the termination of the antidumping duties on the date of expiry.

Edited by Martin Zhuwakinyu
Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

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