State-owned power utility Eskom would be looking to expand its base-load capabilities within the next twelve months, if demand side management (DSM) initiatives did not achieve its saving target, GM for sustainability and innovation Wendy Poulton said on Wednesday.

Speaking to an energy conference hosted by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) she said that the immediate options to increase the base-load would not include nuclear, as this option was too time consuming to roll out.

Rather, Poulton said that Eskom would focus on coal-fired power stations, clean coal technologies, and energy efficiencies. These base-load options would also, to a smaller extent, be supplemented with renewable energy options.

She added that current installed generation capacity in South Africa currently amounted to around 43,5 GW, however, Eksom’s coal fired power stations may start to be decommissioned from 2023 onward.

Poulton noted that in order to power South Africa’s economy, and ensure that an adequate reserve margin was maintained, around 20 GW of additional generation capacity would be required by 2020, and up to 40 GW by 2030. This was based on the assumption of a moderate growth scenario that estimated a 3% consumption growth rate, over 20 years.

Eskom’s current build programme and independent power producer (IPP) projects could contribute at least 14 GW by 2017. It was further estimated that there was an opportunity of reductions of between 8% and 15%, over five to ten years, through the implementation of effective DSM measures.

Poulton stated that during 2009 and 2010, Eskom would focus on certain key policy issues, which would include energy efficient initiatives, including the further roll out of its solar water heater programme, DSM and energy conservation schemes.

The power producer would also look at what role nuclear energy could play in its future power mix.

Poulton noted that Eskom would also focus on a tariff path to enable the completion of the current generation build programme, the introduction of the IPPs and the need to diversify energy resources.

The proposed increases in the tariff levels, which were likely to be implemented over the next three years and which was currently before the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa), would set the foundation for funding of these projects, Poulton said.

Eskom had applied for a 45% a year tariff increase over three years, but Engineering News Online reported on Friday that the utility was working on a revised application, which would be submitted to Nersa by November 30.

Speaking at the WWF conference, Science and Technology Deputy Minister Derek Hanekom said that significant tariff increases were necessary to sustain the energy supply to the country.

“It is not a free resource, we acknowledge it as a scarce resource, if you want us it in abundance, you have to pay.”

“The tariff increase is inescapable anyway, if you are going to fund the cost of additional electricity supply,” he added.

He noted that with the higher prices of electricity, public behaviour regarding energy use would also be adjusted. People, he noted, would now be more willing to implement energy efficient behaviour and technologies to save themselves from high electricity bills.

“Low tariffs led to wrong behaviour, led to bad behaviour, led to wasteful energy use. So the good part of a higher tariff is that it will lead to different choices and behaviour.