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Eskom on weather-induced demand and post-strike dynamics

Eskom on weather-induced demand and post-strike dynamics

Photo by Duane Daws

19th June 2014

By: Terence Creamer

Creamer Media Editor

  

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There is little question that electricity utility Eskom has had a difficult start to winter, having already declared several power emergencies and having also resorted to unpopular rotational load shedding. There is also serious concen that Eskom will struggle to cope with the additional demand that could arise should the strike in the platinum belt move towards resolution. Engineering News posed some of these questions, and others, to Eskom and the utility’s answers are outlined below.

Engineering News: Was Eskom anticipating demand to reach close to 36 000 MW this early into the winter season?
Eskom: The winter peak demand is most strongly influenced by the weather and cold fronts. The longer-term operational forecast considers the statistical weather patterns and the peak forecast was for later in July. But if a cold front occurs at any time from late May, the peak demand could increase from this time.  Hence the cold fronts experienced from last week have resulted in the high demand. Recent peak demand was most strongly impacted by the weather and particularly cold fronts, with the greatest impact over the wider Gauteng area.

Why has there not been sufficient capacity made available to deal with this demand?
Eskom’s coal-fired power stations are being run hard to ensure that the demand for electricity is met. This combination of factors means that power station units are prone to higher levels of wear and tear, which results in some units either being unable to run at full power or, in a number of cases, having to be shut down for repairs.  The result is that, on some days during the peak period, we have insufficient capacity available to meet the demand without having to resort to the demand management programmes.

What supply has not returned that was expected to be available by this time?
Two units are currently still on planned outage that are taking longer than expected to return to service.

Have the Duvha and Kendal units (trips of which triggered the first load shedding of winter on June 11) been fully restored?
Yes, Kendal Unit 1 and Duvha Unit 5 have been restored.

What is the current level of planned outage?
3 660 MW

What is the current level of unplanned outage?
3 679 MW, including the two units referred to in the earlier question. But this does not include partial load losses which vary during the day.

The weather in Gauteng seems to have turned cold again, what is the anticipated peak for Thursday night?
35 080 MW. Peak demand for the rest of this week is forecast at: 33 139 MW on Friday, 32 602 MW on Saturday, 32 814 MW on Sunday, 35 283 MW on Monday, 35 009 MW on Tuesday and 35 016 MW on Wednesday.

What is the prospect of load shedding on Thursday night?
The probability is not high, but it still remains a possibility over the critical peak period. The system remains under significant strain again from 5pm to 9pm. Eskom had to reduce electricity demand between 5pm and 7pm on Tuesday June 17 in order to balance the electricity system, which was implemented according Eskom’s load shedding schedule.

How is Eskom expecting to cope should the platinum belt return to full load. As we understand it, the platinum mines are drawing about half of the 800 MW they typically draw. Is that the case?
We believe the current load reduction is about 400 MW. Information from industry indicates that the load will not return immediately, but will build up over a couple of weeks.

When does Eskom expect to begin restoring load to the 800 MW-type level? What are the potential implications?
We engage on a weekly basis with the platinum groups impacted by the industrial strike. As soon as a settlement is reached, we will be advised how the respective mines, plants and furnaces will ramp up. The current load of the total platinum sector is down by 400 MW.

Edited by Creamer Media Reporter

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