Embraer, the Brazilian group that is the world’s number one manufacturer of commercial jets carrying up to 130 passengers, forecasts that the global market for jet airliners in the 70-seat to 130-seat category will come to 6 400 new aircraft, worth $300-billion, over the next 20 years. The company released its '2016-2035 Market Outlook' at the Farnborough International Airshow, now under way in the UK.

It expects that these new aircraft will comprise 2 300 airliners in the 70-seat to 90-seat segment and 4 100 in the 90-seat to 130-seat segment. The size of the world 70-seat to 130-seat airliner fleet will jump from 2 670 aircraft in 2015 to 6 690 by 2035. This will make this category the fastest growing segment across the total range of airliners. Of this demand, 63% will be to meet market growth and 37% to replace existing and ageing aircraft.

The company expected that air passenger traffic, measured in revenue-passenger kilometres, would grow at a yearly average rate of 4.7% “by 2035”. This would be driven by increased domestic demand in the developed economies and improved economic conditions in several currently “distressed” emerging markets.

Embraer stressed the need for airlines to chose the correct size of airliner for their operations. “Greater control in matching aircraft capacity to market demand will be an ever-present strategy to keep revenues ahead of costs over the long run,” said Embraer Commercial Aviation president and CEO John Slattery. “Right-sized aircraft call for a new, smarter approach that maximises opportunities and optimises revenues and returns with a more prudent solution to seek out untapped opportunities and to increase capacity and flight frequency, while preserving unit revenues,” said the company in its press release.

In terms of geographic regions, the company expects the biggest demand – 2 020 aircraft, or 31% of the total – from North America. The Asia-Pacific will rank second, with 1 690 or 26%. Third will be Europe, with 1 160 (18%), followed by Latin America with 690 (11%) and then the States that used to be part of the Soviet Union, with 380 (6%). Africa and the Middle East will be sixth equal, taking 230 aircraft, or 4%, each.

The company’s commercial airliner range is composed of the E-jet family. “The E-jets lie at the heart of the 70-130+ seat segment, they are perfectly positioned to maximise profitability for both airlines and leasing companies,” stated Slattery.

The company is currently developing the next generation of E-jets, the re-engined and refined E-jet E2 family. The first version of the new generation airliners, the E190-E2, has made its international debut at Farnborough this week.