South Africa’s chief trade negotiator has serious reservations about whether the desperate push to restart the Doha Round of World Trade Organisation (WTO) negotiations, as well as the aspiration to agree the “modalities” of the deal by year-end, will succeed and is in the best interest of the WTO itself.

Speaking at a roundtable organised by the Institute for Global Dialogue (IGD), in Midrand, on Thursday, Xavier Carim acknowledged that there was, however, a good chance that a meeting will indeed take place in December.

He noted, in particular, the impetus provided by recent calls by the Heads of State from the Group of 20 leading economies and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation to restart the stalled talks as part of a broader confidence-building effort to tackle the prevailing global economic crisis.

However, he said that the risk of failure was “considerable”, given that negotiation positions across the WTO’s 153 member countries, and key negotiation blocs, were still far apart.

“Because the Heads of State have called for a meeting, is likely to go ahead – it is not going to be easy for trade minister’s to keep their jobs if they decide to turn down the chance to have this meeting in Geneva,” Carim quipped.

“But I have some doubts about whether or not it will be successful.”

He also disputed the recent statement by Joshua Setipa, WTO counsellor in the Office of the DG, who told Business Day earlier this week that a deal was “99% there”.

“When I saw that statement, I sat down and counted between 15 and 16 serious issues of difference among members,” Carim said.

He argued that, unless there was a serious narrowing of these differences, or signs of flexibility during the discussions currently under way in Geneva, the “chances of failure are quite high – and the risk of that for the WTO system is bad”.

Negotiators were still grappling with agricultural tariff simplification and the treatment and scope of sensitive farm products.

Further, there was also serious opposition to a move by the US and the European Union (EU) to make it mandatory for all members to participate in talks for eliminating tariffs in selected sectors under the non-agricultural market access (Nama) theme.

“South Africa has some specific concerns about the whole direction of the Nama talks,” Carim added, arguing that, while “ambition” on agricultural liberalisation continued to be downscaled, the demand on developing countries to further liberalise their industrial sectors was growing.

IGD senior researcher: multilateral trade Brendan Vickers told Engineering News Online that there were a range of factors stacked against an imminent favourable outcome to the round.

He argued that the WTO’s ‘single undertaking’ principle, together with the realities of a swiftly changing global economic outlook, were key constraints.

But Vickers also noted that prospects for a deal could also be influenced by the political cycles in key countries. For instance, Indian elections are scheduled for the first half of 2009, with politicians in that country particularly worried about the impact of liberalisation on  their 650-million subsistence farmers.

“New faces in the EU Commission and Parliament next year could further slow down the whole Doha project.

“There’s also no guarantee that the new US Congress – dominated by Democrats – would accept the modalities, in the event that the ministers actually secure a deal,” he added.

However, both Vickers and Carim acknowledged that there were also a number of powerful forces and countries backing the call for a deal, including some of South Africa’s traditional allies, such as Brazil.

The EU and Australia were also key advocates of the Doha progress, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel saying on Wednesday that there is a “clear determination” to seek a deal.

In addition, Reuters quoted the EU’s trade chief, Catherine Ashton, as saying that a ministerial meeting should occur within the next three weeks.

It is understood that WTO DG Pascal Lamy would need to make a call by Friday on whether or not the ministerial meeting should be convened, with a tentative date having been set for the week of December 12 to December 19.

“By the end of this week, Lamy has to make a call as to whether or not there is a reasonable chance of success.

“If there isn’t, perhaps the idea will be not to agree on the modalities in December, but to reach some kind of an agreement to continue work,” Carim concluded.

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