The number of fixed and wireless broadband connections in South Africa is expected to reach over 3,3-million subscribers by 2012, a research firm said last week.

Information and communication tech- nology research and analysis company BMI-TechKnowledge said that the country’s fixed and wireless broadband connections were expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33% between 2007 and 2012.

Fezekile Mashinini, a telecoms analyst at BMI-T, said that, under the base scenario, DSL subscribers were forecast to account for 45% of the total market over the forecast period, while wireless, both fixed and mobile, would account for 55%.

“Currently, DSL accounts for 49% but is shedding some market share to the fast-growing HSDPA wireless service being provided by the two mobile operators, Vodacom and MTN. “HSDPA’s forecasts CAGR over the period is 35%,” he added.

In its latest report, entitled ‘SA Wireless Access and Broadband Market Forecast and Analysis’, the company also outlines different service take-up scenarios for broadband services, depending on the outcome of potentially disruptive events in the market, such as wide- scale deployment of WiMAX, which has been accepted by the ITU as a 3G standard, and other factors, such as the availability of spectrum for wireless services.

The base scenario assumes a 400% growth of performance for the same price, between 2005 and 2012. Blended average revenues for every subscriber will, accordingly, also fall dramatically, but will be sustained to some extent by customer uptake of increasingly higher-performance offerings, the report states.

“The market witnessed an unprecedented reduction in services prices during 2007, and this has fuelled market demand for broadband services in both residential and business segments.”

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