South Africa's business confidence in the third quarter rose to its highest level in two-and-a-half years, or the period shortly before the onset of the global financial crisis, the latest survey by Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) and the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) shows.

The third-quarter surge was unlikely to be repeated in the fourth quarter, but the compilers still argued that a further moderate increase was possible.

The RMB/BER business confidence index (BCI), released on Monday, rebounded 11 points to 47 points in the third quarter, having fallen from 43 points to 36 in the second quarter.

Confidence in all five of the sectors making up the BCI - building, manufacturing, retail, wholesale and new vehicle trade - increased during the period.

The biggest increases were registered in the new vehicle and retail trade sectors, where confidence surged by 30 index points, to 79, and 14 index points, to 52, respectively.

Manufacturing confidence "edged up", from 28 points in the second quarter to 30, its highest level since the end of 2008.

RMB chief economist Ettienne Le Roux said that the rebound was suggestive that the decline in the second quarter represented an "aberration in an otherwise upward trend" and that the improvement was consistent with the economic recovery "remaining on track".

Should the index improve to above the breakeven 50-point mark in the fourth quarter, Le Roux argued that it would be consistent with an expansion in the overall economy of around 3%.

The rise also indicated that the adverse impact on South Africa of renewed weakness in some industrialised countries could be partly countered by domestic economic growth drivers.

The fact that manufacturing production rose despite the relative strength of the rand, provided some evidence that such domestic drivers were taking "fuller effect".

This was further aided by low interest rates, which supported sales of particularly motor vehicles and semidurable goods, while firms across all sectors retrenched fewer people during the third quarter.

But the compilers noted that confidence levels of the different sectors varied substantially, with the high confidence levels of the internal trade sectors standing in contrast to the low levels of the building and manufacturing sectors.