It is a balmy Monday evening in London. Oh, how I wish it was. It is, in fact, a blistering hot evening. For London, that is. It is 22:30. The sun has set an hour earlier and the temperature is 24 ºC, with humidity at 58%, and there is barely a breeze to speak of. It is Monday June 19.

Come to think of it, the heat is most appropriate, for, earlier in the day, the UK and the European Union (EU) had initiated their negotiation of what has become known as Brexit, Britain’s exit from the EU. In just more than four days – on June 23 – it would be the first anniversary of the UK and Gibraltar having voted, through a referendum, to leave the EU. A total of 51.9% of voters favoured leaving the EU in that referendum.

On March 29, the UK government initiated the official EU withdrawal process by triggering Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, the EU law that sets out the process by which member States may withdraw from the bloc. The withdrawal process has to be completed within two years of its notification – by March 30, 2019 – unless the UK and EU negotiators agree otherwise. If the negotiations do not result in a ratified agreement, the seceding country and the EU will follow World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules on tariffs.

It is a given that the process of negotiation will be far from equitable. Negotiations never are. So, who will flinch first? Well, perhaps unsurprisingly, the first concession has already been made, with the UK abandoning its attempt to force the EU to start talks on a future trade deal immediately. Instead, the UK’s ‘exit Bill’ will be negotiated first.

The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, was talking tough on the day: “I am not in a frame of mind to make concessions or ask for concessions. It’s not about punishment; it is not about revenge. Basically, we are implementing the decision taken by the UK to leave the EU and unravel 43 years of patiently built relations. I will do all I can to put emotion to one side and stick to the facts, the figures and the legal basis, and work with the UK to find an agreement in that frame of mind. The UK has decided to leave the EU; it is not the other way around. The UK is going to leave the EU single market and the customs union; not the other way around. So, we each have to assume our responsibility and the consequences of our decisions. And the consequences are substantial.”

UK Brexit secretary David Davis took a different, more measured approach: “Ever since the referendum, I have been clear that my first priority is to provide certainty to EU citizens living in the UK and to UK citizens resident in the EU, and I know Michel shares that aspiration too. So, now that the negotiations have started, we are determined to get on with the job and deliver that certainty as soon as possible. Prime Minister Theresa May will later this week update European leaders on the UK’s approach to this issue at the European Council. We will then publish a detailed paper, outlining our offer . . ., which, I believe, will form the right basis on which to reach agreement. I will also be briefing members of other parties on privy council terms, as well as briefing Parliament more generally.”

Earlier in the day, the two negotiators had agreed on the terms of reference for the Article 50 EU negotiations, which are that the UK and the European Commission, representing the EU, share the understanding that the following elements will guide the negotiations under Article 50:
Negotiation structure
1. The negotiating rounds will consist of plenary sessions and negotiating group meetings.
2. Plenary negotiating sessions should be co-chaired by the principals and/or coordinators, who have the overall responsibility for managing the negotiating process and providing the necessary guidance, as appropriate.
3. The following initial negotiating groups have been established: citizens’ rights; financial settlement and other separation issues. In addition, a dialogue on Ireland/Northern Ireland has been launched under the authority of the coordinators.
4. The principals may decide to establish additional working groups and/or subgroups, or organise breakout sessions.
5. Each round of negotiations should comprise public officials of both sides only.
Negotiating texts and other negotiating documents
6. Negotiation texts that are intended for discussion at any negotiating round should be shared at least one week in advance wherever possible.
Frequency of negotiating rounds
7. Negotiation rounds will be organised once every four weeks, in principle, unless otherwise decided by mutual consent. Negotiators may meet intersessionally to prepare negotiations, as required.
8. Indicative dates for first sessions have been agreed as per Paragraph 9 below. Each round will include discussion of each of the issues set out in Paragraph 3.
9. Indicative dates are: opening, June 19; second round, w/c July 17; third round, w/c August 28; fourth round, w/c September 18; and fifth round, w/c October 9.
Language
10. English and French will be used as working languages during negotiations and in working documents. Interpretation will be provided by the European Commission.
Transparency
11. For both parties, the default is transparency.
12. It is for the party providing the information to state what, if any, restrictions should apply to the further distribution of the information.
13. Any disclosure by either the UK or the European Commission of documents originating from the other party will be subject to prior consultation of the originating party.
14. Both parties will handle negotiating documents in accordance with their respective legislation.
Public messaging
15. Where possible, both parties will seek to agree on public statements relating to negotiating rounds.

These are the terms of reference. If you were to believe the doomsday prophets, this is then the end of the UK as we know it. They have possibly never read Richard Bach, author of my favourite book, Jonathan Livingston Seagull, who said: “What the caterpillar calls the end of the world, the master calls the butterfly.” It is not the end, for the plus-size lady has yet to sing.