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Boeing foresees increasing demand for new airliners over next 20 years

An artist’s impression of the Boeing 737 MAX 8

An artist’s impression of the Boeing 737 MAX 8

Photo by Boeing

12th July 2016

By: Keith Campbell

Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

  

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US aerospace giant Boeing has forecast that the global market demand for new airliners will total 39 620 over the next 20 years, worth $5.9-trillion. This represents a 4.1% rise over last year’s forecast. These predictions were made in the company’s 2016 'Current Market Outlook', released on Monday at the Farnborough International Airshow in the UK.

Air passenger traffic is expected to grow at 4.8% a year over the same period. Airfreight should increase by 4.2% annually, creating a need for 930 new freighter aircraft and 1 440 conversions of airliners into freighter aircraft. “Despite recent events that have impacted the financial markets, the aviation sector will continue to see long-term growth with the commercial fleet doubling in size,” highlighted Boeing Commercial Airplanes VP: marketing Randy Tinseth.

The bulk of the demand will be in the single-aisle, or narrow body category, with growth driven by emerging markets and low-cost carriers. This sector is expected to require 28 140 new aircraft, representing a 5% increase over last year’s forecast. This represents a total value of $3-trillion. Boeing believes that its 737-800 and MAX 8 (re-engined 737) airliners are ideal for the “heart” of the single-aisle market, which accounts for 76% of the order backlog in this category.

Regarding wide-body (or twin-aisle) airliners, the company foresees a total demand of 9 100 aircraft. In particular there is the potential for a “large wave” of wide-body replacement demand in the 2021-2028 period. It also predicts a shift in demand from very large aircraft to small and medium wide-bodies, such as its 777, 777X and 787 airliners.

The “small” wide-body airliner – defined as having between 200 and 300 seats – market value is forecast at $1.35-trillion, amounting to 5 100 aircraft. Medium wide-bodies are defined as having from 300 to 400 seats and this segment is seen as requiring 3 470 new aircraft worth $1.25-trillion. The large wide-body segment (airliners capable of carrying more than 400 passengers) will see 530 deliveries of new aircraft at a value of $220-billion.

In terms of geographic markets, Asia will dominate, being forecast to take 15 130 new airliners. North America will be in second place, with 8 330. Europe will be third, with 7 570, followed by the Middle East with 3 310. In fifth place will be Latin America with 2 960. In sixth there will be the countries that formerly made up the Soviet Union, which will take 1 170, while Africa will require 1 150.

Edited by Creamer Media Reporter

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