It will be ten years-plus before South Africans will see a fully autonomous vehicle, or driverless vehicle, on the country’s roads, says Toyota South Africa Motors (TSAM) president and CEO Andrew Kirby.

South Africa will need real-time data, he notes – infrastructure that will allow for constant vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communication – for that to happen.

He believes it may better for South Africa to rather work on increasing its use of level one to three automation, which involves systems such as smart braking and lane-keeping assist, with many of these technologies already present on a number of vehicles available in the local market.

Level five refers to fully autonomous vehicles.

Also, while autonomous vehicles should ensure safer roads with less fatalities, as well as improved access to mobility for the blind and elderly, other challenges remain, such as social acceptance, poor road quality and infrastructure, a lack of legislation to allow such vehicles on the road, and the need for smarter cities with improved urban planning, says Kirby.

Around 70% of the roads in South Africa are unpaved, with those that are paved not always up to standard for the use of autonomous vehicles.

Kirby says the global and local automotive industry faces a one-in-a-hundred-years paradigm shift, owing to the rise of connected, autonomous, shared and electric vehicles, their growth urged on by a booming pollution, gridlocked roads and increasing road fatalities.

In terms of connected vehicles, local challenges include the infrastructure to handle the data requirements of these vehicles, the cost of data, issues around consumer privacy, as well as skills to service and repair these vehicles.

Kirby says vehicle manufacturers cannot navigate these challenges alone, with the automotive industry requiring the help of the telecommunications sector.

Meanwhile, shared mobility refers to the principle where people no longer own a vehicle, but rather make use of car-sharing schemes or e-hailing services.

Here there is no one-size-fits-all, warns Kirby. Global cities will have to fine-tune their own operational model that works best for their particular environment.

Kirby sees shared mobility growing steadily to 2030, accelerating in 2040 and beyond.

As for electrified vehicles – this term referring to battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in-hybrids (PHEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) – the hurdles to local introduction include establishing the necessary refuelling and charging infrastructure.

This technology poses risks to South Africa’s exports of normal internal combustion engines (ICEs), especially to markets where EV popularity is growing rapidly.

As European cities curb the use of ICEs, how will this affect South Africa’s economy, asks Kirby.

Another risk is to the local auto industry’s business model, with large numbers of people employed in the ICE vehicle servicing industry (with BEVs requiring much less maintenance as these vehicles have less moving parts), as well on garage forecourts, for example.

Fuel stations employ around 70 000 people in South Africa.

Business opportunities, however, include increased local production of HEVs and BEVs, the localisation of electrical components, as well as mineral beneficiation.

An important local enabler for the electric vehicle revolution is government procurement of these types of vehicles, as well as incentives to push consumers towards buying BEVs and other electric type vehicles, emphasises Kirby.

By 2030, Toyota will sell 5.5-million electrified vehicles globally, of which 4.5-million will be PHEVs and HEVs, and 1-million will be BEVs and FCEVs, he adds.

However, in South Africa the ratio will be one BEV/FCEV to ten HEVs/PHEVs.

“The ICE will be with us for a quite a while still in South Africa.”

Kirby adds that it is no use creating a new segment of vehicles – electrified vehicles – that is out of reach of most South Africans.

“It is a tremendous opportunity not to help the already privileged, but all people.”

He notes that the rest of Africa also cannot run from the electrification tide.

With vehicle imports from Europe and Japan a big part of many vehicle economies in Africa, the composition of these imports are set to change soon.

With around 60% of all vehicle imports in East Africa coming from Japan, for example, and with Japan’s rapid move to new drive train technology, this African market is set to become a strong hybrid market in the next few years.

“So they need to prepare for this,” says Kirby.

Asked whether it will be viable to electrify South Africa’s minibus taxi fleet, Kirby says converting the current minibuses to BEVs would mean they would weigh 30% more and cost 50% more.

He adds that government regulates minibus standards, which means Toyota cannot change it unilaterally.

“The next stop will probably be hybrids.”

TSAM is the largest producer of minibus taxis in South Africa.

Kirby is also chairperson of the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa.

He spoke at the Smarter Mobility Africa 2019 conference held in Pretoria earlier this week.