Nissan South Africa (SA) will make an announcement on the production of new models at its Rosslyn plant, near Pretoria, by the end of the year, says Nissan SA MD Mike Whitfield.

He expects the announcement “to be positive”.

The Nissan SA plant currently produces the old NP300 Hardbody one-ton bakkie, as well as the NP200 half-ton pick-up.

Nissan’s brand-new one-ton bakkie is already available on the global market, but not in South Africa.

A number of global vehicle manufacturers have in recent years expanded production and exports from their South African operations on the back of incentives offered under government’s Automotive Production and Development Plan (APDP), but not Nissan SA.

Whitfield says discussions within the Japanese group indicates that Rosslyn will, going forward, act as the mother plant for Africa, supplying vehicles and assembly kits into the region.

However, the plant also wants to play “a bigger role in the global picture”.

Whitfield says Rosslyn has the capacity to produce 110 000 vehicles in two shifts, and that it is the “intention to utilise that capacity” in any future production scenario.

Nissan SA will produce around 40 000 vehicles in 2015, far short of government’s official 50 000-unit-a-year threshold set for a number of APDP incentives.

Whitfield is not prepared to divulge the models being considered for future local production. He does, however, highlight a number of interesting facts around the African new-vehicle market.

Around 1.4-million new cars were sold in Africa in 2014, growing to an expected 2.2-million by 2020.

“A big part of this growth would come from the entry-level market, if they can secure finance,” says Whitfield.

The A-segment is expected to make up 36% of the African new-vehicle market by 2020, and the B-segment 6%. Pick-ups will make up 16% of the market.

A- and B-segment vehicles are entry-level sedans and hatchbacks.

The Datsun Go, distributed by Nissan in South Africa, is an A-segment car.

In Angola, the biggest-selling vehicles are A- and B-segment vehicles. The buyers are young people, says Whitfield, with access to finance and newly built road infrastructure.

The potential of the small car market is “massive”.

“We need to capitalise on this. South Africa must not look only at the pick-up market.”

Whitfield notes that eight countries, including South Africa, Nigeria and Algeria, make up 90% of the new-vehicle market on the 54-country African continent.

He affirms Nissan SA’s continued position as the supplier of assembly kits to its parent company’s new Nigerian operation, despite local fears that South Africa may eventually lose out to a Nigerian automotive assembly industry.

Last year, Nissan SA supplied 3 000 NP300 kits to the Nigerian plant.

Nigeria has, in the last two years, through a new tariff regime, economically favoured local vehicle assembly over vehicle imports.

Many people have lamented the sharp decline in the oil price, says Whitfield, but it has served as a “significant wake-up call” to African economies, such as Nigeria, which rely on oil as their single biggest revenue stream.

“Oil was the easy way out. These economies need to diversify now. They need to produce what they consume and consume what they produce.”

And, if South Africa does not supply the Nigerian market with automotive assembly kits and parts, “many others” are ready to do so.

“It is a massive opportunity.”

Free-trade agreements – more than those currently on the table – will certainly help Nissan SA’s expansion, adds Whitfield.

If the South African automotive industry wants to produce more than one-million vehicles into the foreseeable future, it will need to supply more affordable vehicles to the local market, while also building a strong presence in Africa, and “for that we need strong trade agreements”.

“The local market is not currently shrinking due to a lack a demand, but rather due to a lack of affordability,” says Whitfield.