French nuclear vendor Areva has welcomed the publication of the draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) update report, notwithstanding its proposal that the integration of new nuclear capacity should be delayed and scaled back, or even abandoned entirely should the programme fail to meet a proposed cost ceiling.

The Department of Energy (DoE) has called for public comment on the update report, which forecasts materially lower electricity demand over the 20-year horizon and anticipates that 6 600 MW less capacity will be required by 2030 than is proposed in the current version, which was promulgated in early 2011.

As a result of the revised demand projections, the draft IRP update indicates that the first new nuclear capacity should be introduced only after 2025 instead of the 2023 target date in the current plan and that 6 660 MW be developed by 2030, rather than the 9 600 MW currently proposed.

However, it also cautions that the country should not “prematurely” commit to a technology that could become “redundant” if electricity demand expectations do not materialise. Under low demand growth conditions, the update does not foresee a need for nuclear baseload until after 2035.

The draft update also asserts that, should there be no commitment to a nuclear capital cost below $6 500/kW, the procurement should be abandoned in favour of alternative technologies. The update makes the specific recommendation that regional and domestic gas options be pursued and that shale-gas exploration be “stepped up”.

But Areva South Africa MD Dr Yves Guenon says the group is pleased with the “realistic projections” contained in the update regarding the building of nuclear baseload capacity by 2035, as well as the fact that an effort has been made to align the document to the longer-term and broader Integrated Energy Plan, which is being crafted simultaneously to the IRP.

Areva also welcomes the introduction of the price ceiling for the build programme, which is in line with the National Development Plan’s affordable energy-mix recommendation. The update’s base case is premised on an overnight cost (in 2012 dollars) of $5 800/kW and a ceiling of $6 500/kW.

The comment period closes on February 7 and the DoE says the responses will be used to inform a final draft to be submitted to Cabinet by March 2014. Following Cabinet endorsement, the approved document will then be promulgated and published in the Government Gazette.

The IRP update report was published while Energy Minister Dikobe Ben Martins was still undertaking a study tour of nuclear industries in various countries, including France, China, Russia, Korea and the US. It is understood that the tour has focused not only on the technology solutions and the financing of such facilities, but also the localisation, skills development and job creation spin-offs.

It also emerged amid reports suggesting that South Africa and the Russians had made significant progress on a nuclear deal. However, those reports were subsequently dismissed.

Another close industry observer, who refused to be identified, still felt that a nuclear decision was imminent; with another suggesting that a decision on the procurement process would be made during the first half of 2014.