Imagine a séance somewhere in the vici- nity of Luthuli House, the headquarters of the African National Congress (ANC). Huddled around a brazier in a room filled with the smoke and smell of incense is a group of young people whose incantations sound like a chant one has heard before. As the smoke begins to clear, the lungs of the young lions seem to clear, letting out grunts which sound very much like the names of struggle icons. One’s initial confusion gives way to clarity of hearing. Of course, they are trying to evoke the spirit of 1949.

What is so special about 1949?

Before I come to that, allow me to turn my attention to ANC Youth League (ANCYL) president Julius Malema. The other day, young Julius waxed lyrical about former President Thabo Mbeki. He reminded us that Mbeki was one of the best cadres of the ANC. He also expressed high admiration for Mbeki’s intellect.

Fortunately, things did not get worse than I thought. For a moment, I thought the young lion would break into fits of uncontrollable sobbing out of guilt for the role he played in Mbeki’s removal as head of State in 2008. Surely, you have not forgotten about Judge Chris Nicholson. This is the man who, on a beautiful Spring day in 2008, pronounced that it was not unreasonable to surmise that Jacob Zuma had been a victim of a political conspiracy. This was music to the ears of Malema and other supporters of Zuma who had been arguing for months that Zuma’s corruption case had been politically motivated.

Malema responded with a melody of his own. He called on the National Executive Committee of the ruling party to recall Mbeki if they wanted to avoid being recalled themselves. The rest, as they say, is history, and, as they also say, history repeats itself. This time, it is Zuma who might be hit by the revolving door of history. Guess who is pushing the door? Young Julius, of course! Before I forget, the day after he heaped praise on Mbeki, Malema assured Zuma that he would not tamper with his crown. Zuma would be well advised to read William Shakespeare’s Othello. My own advice is that he should study the character of the two-faced Iago. I am getting closer to 1949.

The ANCYL is famous, or infamous, depending on one’s vantage point, for its role as kingmaker in ANC leadership contests. However, Malema seems to be more ambitious. To me, Malema comes across as a leader of the ANCYL who is not content with limiting his role to that of kingmaker. After his re-election as presi- dent of the league, he is going to engage in both leadership and policy battles in the ANC. In other words, the support of the league in the upcoming 2012 battle for the presidency of the ANC will be guaranteed only in cases where those with leadership ambitions declare their support for the policy positions of the ANCYL.

There is, therefore, no doubt that Malema will mobilise against those who oppose the league’s call for policies such as the nationalisation of mines. If Zuma openly rejects or is coy about nationalisation, the ANCYL will try to do an AB Xuma on him. In 1949, the league, under the leadership of Nelson Mandela, Anton Lembede, Walter Sisulu, OR Tambo and others, mobilised against Xuma in the race for the presidency of the ANC . That is how James Moroka replaced Xuma as the president of the ANC at the 1949 conference of the ANC, in Mangaung, Bloemfontein.

Xuma had rejected demands by the Youth League for the radicalisation of ANC policies and programmes. It is this radi- calisation, under the presidency of Moroka, which led to the Defiance Campaign of 1952.

Is a fate similar to that of Xuma awaiting Zuma at the 2012 conference of the ANC, in Mangaung?
While it is too early to tell, one of the questions we must ask is whether the Youth League of 2012 will be qualitatively the same as that of 1949. Despite the fact that there is no doubt that the Youth League’s golden period is behind us, Malema and the ANCYL cannot be underestimated in the upcoming succession battle. The league has become part of a growing number of political actors who supported Zuma in Polokwane but now seem to be opposed to the idea of re-electing him in 2012.

Some of Zuma’s former allies are unhappy with what they see as his failure to live up to the expectations of Polokwane. Chief among these was the expectation that a Zuma administration would meet their policy demands. In the case of Malema, hell hath no fury like a young lion scorned.

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