Sub-Saharan Africa’s telecommunication services market will be worth $51-billion in 2021, with retail telecoms revenue set to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.1% between 2015 and 2021, a new Analysys Mason report reveals.

Karim Yaici, a senior analyst at the research firm, noted that this figure would increase from the $41-billion it reached in 2015.

The sub-Saharan Africa telecommunications market report for trends and forecasts from 2016 to 2021 further indicated that mobile services would represent more than 88.4% of the telecommunication services revenue in 2021, with mobile handset data services being the largest source of retail revenue growth in the region, contributing $8-billion.

“This will be driven by population growth, expansion into rural areas and a high demand for mobile data services. Mobile voice will remain a key revenue contributor and connections and traffic will increase, but there will be greater commoditisation and bundling of voice minutes,” Yaici explained.

The report further highlighted that the increased availability of low-cost smartphones, improved third-generation (3G) coverage and the deployment of 4G networks were driving the demand for data connectivity and the development of innovative digital services. Analysys Mason predicts that 2G will remain the predominant technology in sub-Saharan Africa, while 3G’s share of connections will increase to 38% in 2021. 4G, however, will account for only 7% of total mobile connections in 2021.

Meanwhile, the report indicates that investment in fixed-wireless and fibre technologies will help drive the adoption of fixed broadband.

The number of broadband connections in sub-Saharan Africa will increase from six-million in 2015 to nearly ten-million in 2021, but this represents an overall penetration rate of only 4.2% of households, mainly because of the lack of reliable and affordable fixed broadband options.

Government-led national broadband plans, coupled with operators’ investment in fibre networks and fixed wireless technologies, such as TD-LTE, will boost coverage.

These plans have already helped improve broadband adoption in markets such as Kenya, Rwanda and South Africa.

Along with figures and forecasts for the region as a whole, Analysys Mason’s report includes data from Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia.